TradingVisions

EarlyBird was originally released and traded in April, 1999. EarlyBird II, released in August, 2002 added a sub-system that captures an additional trading pattern.

Although originally created to trade the S&P (full-size and e-mini), EarlyBird II also performs very well on two additional out-of-sample markets--the e-mini Russell and the DAX--using the same logic. This is the mark of a robust system, that it performs on multiple markets, in addition to performing in real-time.

In over 9 years of out-of-sample performance, EarlyBird--without any changes to its logic-has successfully navigated a variety of market conditions, one of the few day trading systems to do so, and one of the longest-lived of the day trading systems available to the public.

EarlyBird looks for a particular type of volatility, market strength, and directionality that is very predictive of days likely to have strong swings. Rather than indicators, time and price patterns determine these tradable days. By being selective, EarlyBird looks to reduce risk by not overtrading and by participating on days when volume propels price, increasing the likelihood of profitable trades.

What makes EarlyBird II unique is that it is composed of three separate but integrated subsystems--trend, countertrend, and countertrend failure--each designed to capture a distinct and reliable market pattern. These 3 subsystems work together to create a smoother equity curve by capturing the dominant modes of the market.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Impetus is a completely mechanical daytrading system, one of the few that has been able to successfully trade the markets of the last several years. It is recommended for the e-mini Russell 2000, the German DAX and the full-size and e-mini S&P 500. It was released in January, 2003 and has been traded by the developer since February of 2003. No changes to the logic have been made since release.

Impetus has only one optimizable parameter and is based on a simple equation: power + direction = trend. A single unique calculation determines the power of the market: its tendency to move decisively and the direction of the market. Together these forces create a tradable trend. Impetus is able to capitalize on being in the market a small fraction of the time (less than 1%), trading only the late part of the day session and averaging two trades per week. The system utilizes two separate systems to take advantage of a trend. The first is the regular trend component, which enters in the direction of the major intraday trend when price breaks out. The second system looks for a minor countertrend move within the major trend, entering after a retracement and the return of price toward the major trend. Impetus trades about twice per week on average.

All trades are entered using stops. Protective stops that adjust to price and volatility are used in all cases and the target maximum risk is set before a trade. Both sub-systems employ a breakeven stop, which locks in a small portion of gain when a trade has advanced sufficiently. Please note, protective stop orders may not be effective in limiting losses because market conditions may make it impossible to execute the order at a reasonable price.

Impetus is based on distinct time and price patterns that exhibit themselves in the equities markets. It is the result of observation, not optimization. It was originally designed for the S&P index. However, as SP/ES experienced lower volatility in 2003, Impetus was tested without modification on a completely out-of-sample market, the e-mini Russell 2000 in mid-2003 and actual trading commenced in November, 2003. Such out-of-sample results demonstrate the robustness of Impetus and provide a reasonable expectation from the system. Over 3 years of actual trade results have further validated the rule-set of Impetus. In the constantly-changing environment of index trading, very few systems have been able to perform well for so long.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Delphi Universal is a completely mechanical swing and day trading system which was released September 27, 2005. In May of 2007, Delphi II was introduced. The system was simplified and walk-forward optimization (see below) was used to generate the out-of-sample performance results, as well as the current trading parameters.

Most systems are developed with one market and timeframe in mind, increasing the potential of over-curvefitting. Some systems are able to trade a number of markets within a market segment and/or a specific timeframe. What makes the original Delphi unique is that with exactly the same rules, it successfully trades a wide variety of markets and timeframes, from intraday domestic and global index data to daily data of every sector of the domestic and global commodity markets to Forex. Few systems available to the public can make this claim.

Delphi original is a robust trend-following system that employs a dynamic channel breakout entry technique. A proprietary filter reduces the likelihood of trades during congestion periods. Entries may occur on a price breakout or retracement from the main trend. In order to avoid over-curvefitting to one market, the system was developed using intraday data of the 5 main US indices and several non-US indices. End-of-day data was used to test a basket of 42 non-index commodities in every sector. Although Delphi does not net a profit in all markets, the fact that it is successful on a wide range attests to its robustness.

Delphi II is the result of applying a proprietary walk-forward optimization routine to original Delphi. The result is a simplified system with a hypothetical performance record that is virtually equivalent to a real-time record. At present, it is most recommended for swing trading EM (the emini Midcap), day trading ER (the emini Russell) and swing and day trading the DAX. These markets are the best trenders of the major indices and have good volatility and dollar-per-point value.

All entries and exits are stops or limits. All exits are based upon volatility, as determined by ATR (average true range). There is one profit lock level, where the stop is moved up to protect a profit, and a profit objective limit. The objective is reached about 20% of the time, avoiding some of the give-back that trend-following systems inevitably experience. Please note, protective stop orders may not be effective in limiting losses because market conditions may make it impossible to execute the order at a reasonable price. The system reverses about 50% of the time. Delphi trades an average of 7 trades/month per index and is in the market about 55-60% of the time.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

AXIOM Index is a mechanical, trend-following, swing system that is recommended for the emini S&P, emini NASDAQ, the German DAX (swing and day trade) and several other global indices. It employs a unique entry mechanism that utilizes a proprietary channel built upon the confluence and mutual confirmation of a number of trend cycles. AXIOM runs on the TradeStation platform and was officially released April 21, 2004, when it was submitted to Futures Truth for third-party tracking.

Features:

• Simple logic: Both entry and exit logic are straightforward in identifying the trend and trend change.
• Robust Performance: AXIOM is unique in that it is able to trade a wide variety of markets & both intraday & day time-frames & AXIOM Index uses the same entry parameters for all markets. This versatility indicates a system based upon the realities of the market.
• High reward-to-risk: On average, AXIOM Index hypothetically returns per market about twice per year what that market′s average maximum drawdown. When trading more than one index, the reward-to-risk increases.
• Diversification: AXIOM Index performs well on a number of indexes, allowing clients to create a portfolio with a customized risk/reward profile.
• Low target risk level: The recommended risk level is $330 for e-minis.
• Peace of Mind: Early in a move, the protective stop is adjusted to lock in a profit, thus reducing the risk window to shorter periods. Please note, protective stop orders may not be effective in limiting losses because market conditions may make it impossible to execute the order at a reasonable price.
• High Average Trade Profit: High average trade profit buffers the impact of slippage/commission.
• Staying Power: Compared to daytrading systems, the advantage of holding positions is that AXIOM Index is able to capture larger period movements. Additionally, by designing the system to run nearly wide open after locking in an initial profit, the market is allowed breathing room, limiting premature exits and yielding larger winning trades.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.